Sunday, October 7, 2012

Visual Economics Trump Government Statistics

The unemployment numbers, the "job report," that came out on Friday had two attributes you need to understand to put the Obama touted economic recovery statistic of 7.8% unemployment in perspective. 

We all know, by now, that the 7.8% does not include: people who have stopped looking for work, people who work in a family business but do not get paid, people who wish a full time job but have accepted a part time job and people who made a bunch of money and now work for minimum wage. However those aspects are still not the attributes that I wish to bring to your attention today. So keep on reading.

First attribute and the most conspiratorial one. The jobs report was complete on the day before the debate and locked in a safe. In other words, some people knew the jobs report was positive. Maybe He did and maybe He did not. Who knows for sure? Jack Welch the former CEO of General Electric said the reports have a fishy smell.

Second attribute is not as conspiratorial, but still relevant. The jobs report contained updated job numbers from the previous two months. The previous two months were corrected upwards for jobs, apparently created but not counted, and then aggregated into the October numbers. Yes, that is correct. The jobs report is subject to both upward and downward backward corrections. The current report of 7.8% could be corrected, after November elections, for new percentages. What a bummer that would be, if in December, the 7.8% is corrected backwardly upward to 8.5%?  

The flood of information is creating a sea of doubt about the government statistics we have all based our economic measurements on.  I use a much simpler visual economic index. I open my eyes and see gasoline costs more, food costs more, education costs more, health insurance costs more and everyone I know earns less. I hope Romney reaches out with visual economics in his next debate.



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