It is not that complicated. Sprint will purchase 30 Million iPhones over 4 years. Sprint will pay Apple $18 billion and change for the iPhones. Each iPhone user will pay Sprint $200 for the iPhone, which is $6 billion. Each iPhone user will also pay Sprint about $1000 per year to use the iPhone, which is 4 X $1,000 X 30,000,000 which is $120 billion. Summarily, Sprint pays Apple $18 billion and gets $126 billion in return from users. And that is just in the next 4 years. iPhone users do not switch. They upgrade.
Let me put it in perspective. Sprint which has sales of approximately $30 billion in 2010 will have sales of $60 billion or more in 2014. Sure, I can warm up my Excel and get cute and go wild with consumer behavior formulas with the forecasts, but there is no evidence that complexity is more accurate than simplicity.
Sprint was criticized and their stock was dumped because the analysts said they could not understand the iPhone impact on Sprint. Take out your calculators. It is just arithmetic.
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