Look for Disruptive Events

In the last few days, several young people – ages 22-31 – have asked me what education type, college or otherwise, will guarantee a good job? The answer, of course, is there is no guarantee. But aside from the lack of a guarantee, what industries provide the best opportunity for long term employment. My advice is look for signs of major disruptive events for opportunities. You have no doubt heard that venture capitalists look for disruptive technologies that create investment opportunities. The same can be said of disruptive events that create possible employment opportunities.

One such disruptive event has occurred in the automotive industry. Aside from the financial issues, thousands of dealers have been terminated. The simple fact is we do not need as many dealers as we used too. I will leave the evidence supporting that assertion aside for now. Whoa, Mr. Webtalk, are you saying there are opportunities in the automotive industry? Absolutely my fine feathered friend.

The automotive industry is going through major disruption particularly in the way consumers look for and eventually purchase cars. Some commentators predict that 75% of all car purchases will be made totally on-line within 5 years including financing. Toyota is spending more than $50 million per year for its on-line presence.

The era of the sharp-tongued salesperson: with the deal of the century, or $50 off factory invoice, or my boss will fire me if I do not make this sale, or it is the end of the month special, or I will take this offer into my manager, or this is the lowest price you will ever get- that era is gone. Those sales pitches are dead. Millennials will not buy it.

Most consumers, certainly consumers in the 20-40 year age bracket, shop on-line first. This change in purchasing habit has by itself reduced the need for salespeople and the number of dealers needed in a geographical area. The automobile companies knew it. They in fact wanted to cut thousands more dealers, but were restricted by threatened litigation and by the politics of their newest shareholder - the Federal government.

The automotive industry is going to deliver 10-12 million cars a year for many years to come. It employs thousands of people, but the skills required to sell cars today are different than the skills required 20 years ago. For example, Facebook knowledge is a more important skill than smoking a cigar, or a special expertise in pandering. Dealers who use social media to introduce people to their car offerings will survive the almost assured further shrinking of the number of automotive dealers.

The automotive industry is here to stay. The “old time” car salesperson is as gone as an eight-track tape. If Arthur Miller were writing his 1949 play, The Death of a Salesman, he would certainly cast the lead character, Willie Loman, as a car salesman. And that is my point. The termination of thousands of dealers is a disruptive event. Some will see this event as a declining industry. Some will see it as an opportunity.

There are many other disruptive events. Blogging is one. Our local newspaper just ran an employment ad for a full time blogger for the paper. As the Tinman would say, “Who could have thunk it?”